The race for the White House has become increasingly unpredictable in the final 10 days before the election, especially given the possibility that Mr. Trump could win the popular vote.
Former President Donald Trump appeared at a campaign event in Pennsylvania on October 26 – Photo: REUTERS
Former President Donald Trump has closed a narrow gap with Vice President Kamala Harris, according to national polls released this week, making the race for the White House tighter than ever.
Break out the last days
According to Newsweek magazine , most recent polls show that American voters’ support for Mr. Trump is increasing, while support for Ms. Harris is showing signs of decline, even though the Democratic candidate has always led in national surveys.
For the first time since August, Mr. Trump has surpassed Ms. Harris in the last four major polls.
The latest national poll by Emerson College, based on the opinions of 1,000 voters, conducted from October 23 to 24, showed Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris tied at 49%.
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Harris – Trump race: the final move
This poll brings good news to Mr. Trump’s campaign when less than a month ago, Ms. Harris was still supported by 50% of voters participating in the survey, 2% higher than the 48% rate of the 78-year-old former president.
According to another national poll released on October 25 by the Times/Siena , Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris are tied at 48%.
Previously, a poll in early October by The Times showed that Ms. Harris’s support rate was 49% and Mr. Trump’s was 46%.
The Times magazine assessed the above results as not very positive for Ms. Harris because the Democratic Party has won the popular vote in recent elections even when they did not win the race to the White House.
Trump and Harris are tied at 47% in a CNN/SSRS poll released on October 25. In September, the group’s poll showed Harris leading Trump by 1 point at 48%.
In addition, a CNBC survey released on October 24 recorded Mr. Trump leading by 2 points with 48%, compared to Ms. Harris’s 46%.
Two surveys released on October 23 by the Wall Street Journal (47% and 45%) and HarrisX/Forbes (51% and 49%) both showed that Mr. Trump was leading Ms. Harris by 2 percentage points.
US analysts do not rule out the possibility of Mr. Trump winning the popular vote – Photo: REUTERS
Can Trump ‘make history’?
If Trump wins the popular vote, it would not only be an achievement, but also a historic event for the 78-year-old former president, who lost the popular vote twice in 2016 and 2020, according to election analyst Harry Enten.
In the 2016 presidential race, Mr. Trump lost the popular vote to his opponent, former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, by about 3 million votes. However, the electoral votes helped him win the election.
In the 2020 race for the White House, Mr. Trump lost to President Joe Biden in both the popular vote and the electoral vote. Mr. Biden won 7 million popular votes and 74 electoral votes over Mr. Trump.
“Donald Trump could make history, not just for himself but for the Republican Party,” said analyst Harry Enten, noting that no Republican presidential candidate has won the popular vote since former President George W. Bush was re-elected in 2004.
When ’30 is not yet Tet’
US Vice President Kamala Harris (left) and former first lady Michelle Obama attend a campaign event in Michigan on October 26 – Photo: REUTERS
Despite Trump’s advantage, Harris still leads in some recent polls. A Monmouth University poll from October 17 to 21 showed Harris with 51% support, up 2 percentage points from Trump’s 49%.
The survey released on October 23 by Economist/YouGov continues to be good news for the Democratic Party when Ms. Harris leads with 49%, while Mr. Trump is at 46%.
The Democratic candidate even leads by 4 percentage points, with 50% compared to 46% of his Republican opponent, according to a weekly survey by Morning Consult released on October 22.
Analyst Harry Enten also “hinted” at the path to victory for the Democratic Party through winning more electoral votes.
“If you look at the state-level polls, you can see that Mr. Trump has a particularly good record in California, Florida, New York and Texas. But none of those states can change the election outcome,” Mr. Harry Enten expressed his opinion.
According to Mr. Enten, strong support in the above states only helps Mr. Trump gain an advantage in many polls.
However, if Ms. Harris prevails in the battleground states of the Great Lakes region (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania), she could win the electoral votes.
